Prediction: Lots of Cold and Snow This Year but a Brown Christmas

The warm noonday sun may still be thawing the frost on the pumpkin, but old man winter is quickly scheduling his attacks on the region and experts are predicting 2022-23 will serve as a reminder of cold, hard winters of the past.

Morrisons Cove no longer has George Acker, the elderly weather forecaster who would predict hurricanes, tornadoes, heavy snow storms, thunder showers, even summer warm stretches, but we do have the weather "bible," the Old Farmer's Almanac.

Tim Goodwin, associate editor of the Almanac, which has published every year since 1792, said Northeastern United States, including the Appalachia region, comprising much of central and western Pennsylvania will experience temperatures colder and snow fall heavier than normal.

"The cold will start to set in in early December when there will be a chance of flurries," Goodwin said in a telephone interview from his office in Dublin, New Hampshire.

The temperatures are expected to be five degrees below normal in the last month of the year and seven degrees below normal on average in late January and early February, Goodwin said.

Look for the greatest snowfall during two time periods during the first month of the year.

Put in the words of the Almanac, which boasts being the oldest continually published periodical in the nation: "The snowiest periods will be in early and late January."

Predicted snow fall in the Appalachians during this time will be 6.5 inches, or nearly twice the January snowfall of 3.5 inches.

January and February will be very cold, according to the Almanac predictions.

"You hope you get cold and snow for Christmas but when it's over, I don't think anybody wants snow," Goodwin said.

If this region does get snow for Christmas, indications by the Almanac are it won't amount to much.

Snow showers and mild temperatures are anticipated for Dec. 19 to 22. Flurries and cold from Dec. 23 to 26. Rain turning to showers will usher in 2023.

Snowmobilers and skiers in the region may see significant accumulation in the second week to the last half of January.

"It's kind of a tale of two winters," Goodwin said.

While much of the Northeast will experience a cold, snowy winter, it will be milder than normal across eastern Maine; from the Rockies to the West Coast and across Alaska and Hawaii.

On the bright side, spring will be warmer than normal through much of New England through the Ohio Valley south to Florida.

But more specifically, the experts are predicting for the Appalachian region, an April colder than average and that May temps will be higher than usual.

Last year's easy winter is likely the result of Solar Cycle 24 which had the lowest level of solar activity in the last 100 years, Goodwin said.

Solar cycles are the foundation in long term weather forecasting, the experts say.

"We are now in Cycle 25, which is expected to peak around July 2025," the writers of the forecast explain.

It is expected to bring diminished activity which historically means cooler temperatures across the earth.

The solar cycle is also known as the solar magnetic field cycle, something that takes an estimated 11 years to complete.

There are active and intense areas on the surface of the sun, Goodwin said.

It's all about balls of gas, magnetic fields and twisting, which builds up energy.

The solar cycles are something NASA watches with intensity, terming them "space weather," or radiation in the solar system.

What ever the method, the Almanac team has a pretty good success rate of predicting the weather, even for as long as a year out, Goodwin said.

The formula, which is said to be a secret, was developed in 1792 by the founder of the Almanac, Robert B. Thomas.

He deduced that sunspots, also known as magnetic storms on the surface of the sun played a big role in the earth's weather, Goodwin said.

"We work with some really intelligent folks who have studied weather for a long time," Goodwin said. "We lean on them for their expertise. It's a long process."

Historically, the Almanac's weather team has an accuracy rate of about 80 percentage, but trouble last year in Region 14, the Desert Southwest, resulted in a drop in the rating.

The winter precipitation for the south west was predicted to be normal but it came in below normal.

"If someone could get the predictions 100 percent right, they'd be very wealthy," Goodman said.